After more than three weeks, the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 continues to baffle investigators, and a panel of experts which met yesterday are no closer to giving a definite answer although they looked at six possible explanations on what could have happened to the plane, reported Sky News.
In an event organised by the Royal Aeronautical Society (RAeS), the experts who include pilots, airline bosses, manufacturers and regulators met in central London and came up with an analysis based on these theories – cabin depressurisation, toxic fumes, fire, hijacking, pilot murder-suicide or simultaneous failures.
1. The aircraft depressurised but continued to fly
This would explain the initial change in altitude and heading, as well as subsequent lack of communication, but not why the Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) and transponder were turned off, reported Sky News.
The transponder can be turned off from the cockpit and is done routinely when an aircraft lands.
Turning off the ACARS is more complicated, though, and would need someone with systems knowledge going into the aircraft’s avionics bay – but this should have been prevented if security was adequate.
If the plane was depressurised, it would continue to fly automatically until the fuel ran out.
The effect on passengers would vary depending on altitude. If the aircraft was above 35,000 feet, it would have taken about one minute before everyone was incapacitated.
Oxygen masks should have descended automatically which would have worked for around 15 minutes.
The flight crew could have lasted longer using oxygen masks, depending on whether they used pure oxygen or an oxygen mix.
SUMMARY: It’s possible.
2. The aircraft was overcome by toxic fumes
The pilots should have been able to send out a distress call and, again, it does not explain why the ACARS and transponder were turned off, reported Sky News.
SUMMARY: Unlikely.
3. There was an on-board fire which damaged the communications systems
This would explain the lack of communication, but it is unlikely the aircraft would have then continued to fly as long as it did if the fire continued to burn, reported Sky News.
The aircraft’s communication systems could have also been disabled by power failure or sabotage.
Birdstrike is possible, but is unlikely to have caused such damage.
SUMMARY: Unlikely.
4. The aircraft was hijacked
The aircraft was not flown to another destination, nor was it used as a weapon for a suicide terrorist attack.
If it was an individual hijacker, then no one person or motive has been established and, if it was a group, no organisation has claimed responsibility, reported Sky News.
SUMMARY: It’s possible.
5. The aircraft was deliberately diverted by the pilot/co-pilot
The reason for this has not been identified. If it was a suicide attempt then why did the aircraft continue to fly for so long?
Another question is why there were no mobile phone calls or texts from passengers or cabin crew, given that the in-flight entertainment (IFE) map would have shown the aircraft going off course.
One explanation is that the IFE system was turned off, reported Sky News.
The second is that most passengers were asleep or did not realise anything was wrong until it was too late to do anything. If they tried to phone later, the aircraft would have been in a remote area over the ocean where there was no signal.
The third explanation is that passengers and cabin crew may have been incapacitated in some way, such as by hypoxia due to cabin depressurisation.
SUMMARY: It’s possible.
6. Simultaneous failures
One technical expert pointed out that for every plausible scenario, there is at least one contradictory statement, reported Sky News.
"If it was hypoxia, then who turned the aircraft?" he asked.
"If it was a fire, then how did it continue flying? If it was the flight crew, then why did the cabin crew not intervene?"
He suggested that, perhaps, more than one scenario occurred simultaneously – such as a wiring fire and depressurisation.
OVERALL SUMMARY: Until more evidence is found, nothing can be proven. – April 2, 2014.
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