The #Sabah Dilemma #KLChronicle

INTRODUCTION

Sabah, a state that is known to be Barisan Nasional (BN) fixed deposit is again flexing its muscle. Just as what it did in May this year during the 13th General Election, Sabah is  now offering 3 leaders to top positions in UMNO. These 3 leaders are Sabah Chief Minister Datuk Seri Musa Aman, Rural Development Minister Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal and unknown Tenom youth leader Jamawi Jaafar. 

Musa against Shafie for UMNO VP, but will Jamawi rock the boat?

The first 2 names mentioned above are vying the position of vice president whereas Jamawi is running for the number 2 post in UMNO youth. This current situation has created much anxiety in the whole UMNO set up. The UMNO grassroot from Peninsular Malaysia is now questioning why is that party leaders from Borneo is being given powerful positions at the expense of peninsular leaders. 

The main bone of contention now is who does the peninsular based UMNO grassroot members will want to choose? Will it be Musa Aman, Shafie Apdal or they will give it to Jamawi?

My take is that Musa Aman, as the Chief Minister of Sabah who did extremely well in the 13 General Election will be given the nod. He will oust Shafie Apdal from his current position of party vice president. However, this will only happen if the following situations occur:

JAMAWI JAAFAR LOSES IN HIS BID TO BE NO 2

Jamawi, gunning for UMNO Youth No 2, will he scupper bid from Musa and Shafie?

Jamawi will be the key. It all boils down to his success in the UMNO youth elections. Since the UMNO youth election completes a week before the main party elections, a win for Jamawi will ensure that both Musa Aman and Shafie Apdal will lose their contest in the race to be party vice president. The delegates will conclude that since such a powerful position (Youth No 2) is given to a Sabahan, there is no need for the VP position is to be given.

DATUK SERI ALI RUSTAM ENTERS THE VICE - PRESIDENT RACE

Tok Ali, the favorite to win IF he contest

If Jamawi wins, and all three of Ali Rustam, Musa Aman and Shafie Apdal contest the VP post,  the likely winner will be Ali Rustam without a doubt. Tok Ali as he is known, have tremendous grassroot support not only from Melaka but throught the Peninsular. He might lose the votes from Sabah, but with solid back up from Peninsular he will win the VP race.

CONCLUSION

As what i have mentioned, the key to Sabah's grip on UMNO and the government now rests on Jamawi Jaafar. If he wins the No 2 post of UMNO youth, there will be a backlash of votes from the party grassroot against Musa Aman and Shafie Apdal. The ball is in UMNO Sabah's court, is the interest of Jamawi Jaafar more important or UMNO Sabah's? 

And that is The Sabah Dilemma